San Jose, CA—Adobe released its Adobe Digital Index 2013 Online Shopping Forecast for this year’s holiday selling season. Despite the shortest shopping season since 2002, Adobe predicts record growth for online sales on Thanksgiving with $1.1 billion and Black Friday with $1.6 billion, increases of 21% and 17%, respectively.
According to the report, consumers will spend more than $2.27 billion online on Cyber Monday, up 15% year-over-year (YoY). With only 27 days between Thanksgiving and Christmas, the data also shows that the late start could cost retailers $1.5 billion in potential sales.
Adobe states the forecasts are based on the analysis of nearly half a trillion visits to more than 2,000 retail websites over the last seven years. In addition, 72% of online sales from the top 500 U.S. retailers are generated by companies using Adobe Analytics, a key component of Adobe Marketing Cloud. The large market share made it possible for Adobe to predict spending within one percent in 2012.
“Thanksgiving Day, Black Friday and Cyber Monday will all enjoy record online sales,” said Brad Rencher, senior vice president, Digital Marketing Business, Adobe. “Thanksgiving Day sales are projected to surpass $1 billion and could overtake Black Friday within the next five years. The growing importance of Thanksgiving Day, the shortened holiday season and the growing role of mobile and social will make 2013 a very different shopping season than ever before.”
An Adobe survey done in conjunction with this year’s Digital Index Online Shopping Forecast shows that consumers are motivated to shop online primarily by the search for good deals, followed closely by the allure of free shipping. The survey is based on input from 400 consumers who plan to spend at least some of their budget online this year. Survey results and additional predictions from the report include:
• Mobile. Mobile optimized retailers will transact more than 20% of their sales via smartphones and tablets, a 47% increase YoY. The average retailer can expect 14% of mobile-driven online revenue—an increase of 40%. Mobile devices will be leveraged even while consumers are in a retailer’s physical store, according to the findings, with nearly four in 10 consumers reporting they have shopped online while in a store.
• Social Media. While Adobe is predicting that only 2% of purchases will come directly from social media sites, including Facebook, YouTube, Pinterest and Twitter, social networks play a more significant role earlier in the purchasing journey. Thirty-six percent of consumers stated they will turn to social media when making their purchase decision.
• Spending. The majority of consumers expect to spend the same amount in 2013 as they did last year, but online shopping continues to take a bigger share. Consumers reported being most likely to shop online for apparel and accessories, followed closely by books, music, videos, toys and hobby items.
• Showrooming. In store price checking, commonly referred to as showrooming, will become the norm. Thirty-five percent of 18–34 year olds already leverage mobile devices to compare prices while in stores, well above the 22% average.
Adobe Digital Index publishes research on digital marketing and other topics of interest to senior marketing and e-commerce executives across industries. Research is based on the analysis of select, anonymous and aggregated data from over 5,000 major companies worldwide that use Adobe Marketing Cloud to obtain actionable data and analysis of activity on their websites. The 2013 Online Shopping Forecast’s margin of error is 2%, with a 90% confidence level, according to Adobe. adobe.com