CEA’s statistical analysts, calling 2010 a year of “rebuilding and recovery,” projected that by July – by their reckoning, the one-year anniversary of the beginning of the recession recovery – consumer technology spending would rebound to the tune of 10 percent over the same period a year earlier.
The projection was offered by chief economist Shawn DuBravac and senior research director Ben Arnold on Jan. 5, two days before the opening of the 2010 International Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas.
DuBravac asserted that not only would 3D be one of the top stories at the show this year, but that it “will hit all categories across the show floor. It will transcend displays, into cameras, laptops, mobile devices, accessories and gaming.” The organization estimates that 4.3 million TV sets sold in 2010 will be 3D and that by 2013, over a quarter of all TVs sold will be 3D – and that nearly half those sales would be to rabid sports fans.
Other trends to watch for on the show floor, he added, will touch on connected TV and “over-the-top” services that will include new ways for consumers to discover, view and navigate content, across multiple screens in the household, being developed through new provider partnerships. One in five TVs shipped in 2010 will be Ethernet-connected, setting the stage for these developments, the research found.
“These are all very new business models,” added Arnold. “The question is, how will they evolve? How will consumers manage all these terabytes of information? And how will content discovery happen?”
DuBravac noted that the move in smartphone usage from a browser experience to accessing specific information bits – the development of the “apps environment” – would also shape product introductions on the show floor. “An emerging Tablet 2.0 market will also play out here at CES, and it will be interesting to see what mobile TV products will show up,” he said, in the supplier battle for dominance in the five-inch-to-15-inch-screen niche. Netbook usage patterns could dictate product design direction in that space, he said, indicating that netbooks are primarily used in-home, and for less-than-data-intensive activities, such as shopping online while watching TV. Tablets may not be as totable as smartphones, but their usage may dictate that they don’t need to be, he added. He also spoke of the nascent e-reader product category, projecting that the current market would double in 2010 and double again in 2012. But he added, “if a Tablet 2.0 market emerges, that could impact the growth profiles of both e-readers and netbooks.”
Arnold cited the changes in the consumer TV viewing experience beyond simple program-watching as a trend CEA felt was worth tracking. He said 53 percent of viewers surveyed have visited Web sites of TV shows, 42 percent have watched TV shows online and 21 percent have cast votes during reality TV programming. “It’s clear that the experience doesn’t end when the show ends,” he said.
While just eight percent of viewers said they watch content downloaded from the Internet on their TVs, indicators point to that number growing. “It’s no longer a question of will there be Internet connections in a living room. That will be a given. The next question is, what will that connectivity bring consumers?” said DuBravac.
Other trends likely to either appear or grow further at the 2010 CES, the pair said, include: “green” as the new “black;” personal health CE products; and further cross-pollination of product categories.
